Fanatical but not insane: Frank Ledwidge on why Iran and its proxies are reluctant to engage in a full-scale war with Israel

One approach to try to ensure non-escalation is paradoxically to increase the force levels in the region, is deterrence. The US has deployed two aircraft carrier groups (three if we include an Amphibious Ready Group complete with 2000 Marines). These ships alone deploy far more combat aircraft than the entire British Royal Air Force. In addition the US Air Force has sent several squadrons of fighters and strike aircraft including F 35, F 15 and A 10 attack aircraft.

Furthermore, the US has announced the sending of THAAD ballistic missile defence interceptors. These systems demonstrate the concern US commanders feel. Iran is the only country in the region possessing an effective ballistic missile force, the kind of weapons THAAD is designed to deal with. Iran is already involved in the conflict, but only through the use of its proxy army Hezbollah. The most serious military risk of escalation comes from Iran.

Lebanese Hezbollah which is funded, armedand supported by Iran, claims with good cause, to be the only Arab army to have defeated Israel during the 2006 Lebanon War. In that conflict, despite Israel’s overwhelming advantage in terms of numbers, training and equipment, Hezbollah eventually forced them to withdraw. It is many times more formidable now, After a decade and a half of rebuilding after 2006, Hezbollah is now a far greater threat to Israel.

Hezbollah has built an arsenal of at least 150000 missiles many of which have been supplied by Iran, The threat presented by Hezbollah’s missiles is orders of magnitude greater. Most of these are much more advanced than those being fired by Hamas. With a far smaller arsenal, Hamas has at times managed to overwhelm the Israeli air defense system (the best known part of which is the ‘Iron Dome’), which in general has managed to shoot down about 96% of Hamas missiles. There is a serious risk that Hezbollah’s missile onslaught could defeat Iron Dome (despite US reinforcement) and inflict huge damage on Israeli civilian and military targets.

Hezbollah’s initial targets would certainly include the radar systems which are a central part of Israel’s multi-layer air defense system. One of the functions of the large US force assembled, is – jointly with the Israeli Air Force - to strike their missiles and launchers preferably before they come into action. Realistically speaking, If the order was given to fire Hezbollah arsenal of missiles, it would be impossible for the Israeli air force to hit all Hezbollah launching sites, even if they were joined by US aircraft.

Israel, assisted by US air power, would strike back with overwhelming force on Hezbollah and Lebanese infrastructure, devastating a country already on its knees after a series of crises. The Israelis would also launch a formidable ground assault. At least three divisions-worth of troops are already deployed to act if necessary. IDF soldiers would be faced with Hezbollah’s second major military asset, up to 100000 well-trained fighters.

Many of these have extensive experience from their successful expeditions supporting Asad’s army in the Syrian Civil War. The great fear of western commanders is that all of this would ignite a major regional war as Iran would almost certainly become directly involved in armed confrontation with Israel and its allies, including – indeed especially. It is highly likely that some of the Gulf States, most significantly Saudi Arabia would also by hit by Iran.

The decision as to whether this chain of events is begun lies with Hassan Nasrullah the leader of Hezbollah. He will be heavily influenced by his sponsors and paymasters in Iran. Nasrullah is a survivor and very skilled political operator. With considerable Iranian help, he built Hezbollah from a local terrorist group based – as it is now – in Southern Lebanon in the early-mid 1980s into the most formidable Arab force facing Israel.

The very fact that he has managed to survive through all these years is testament to his skills, and the resilience of his organization in general. He is certainly at the very top of Israel’s target list. He sees himself now, and has done for some time, as part of an anti-Israeli “resistance axis“, composed of Iran and Sunni Islamist groups such as Hamas.

Nasrullah and Iran are weighing the costs and consequences of striking Israel at what may seem its weakest time. However, they fully understand the dangers. The immediate strategic result would be the effective destruction of Lebanon as a modern state. In 2006, Israeli air attacks devasted much of Lebanon’s infrastructure. Nasrallah is fully aware too that full commitment to the fight would ultimately result in the end of Hezbollah as an effective force, blasted and battered by Israel and US air power.

If Iran were to follow Hezbollah into war, it would probably act quickly. It has the capability of causing great damage to its neighbors and the regional and global economy. Oil prices would rise for a start, as supplies would be severely restricted from all the Gulf oil states. However, Iran would also face a catastrophic response by the US and Israeli air forces as well as other western air forces such as the UK’s RAF and the French air force, along with the large Saudi and Gulf states air forces.

This would have deeply unpredictable internal political consequences. Right now the military assessment seems to be that setting off such a series of events is probably not currently in Iranian interests. Both Hezbollah and Israel are conducting limited combat operations against each other to the Lebanese border regions. However, if the level of devastation and killing in Gaza becomes politically intolerable, the pressure on Hezbollah to assist their allies in the “resistance axis” could arrive at the point where Hezbollah has little choice.

So as the American aircraft carriers sail along the coasts of the Eastern Mediterranean, and the ground and air crews prepare their aircraft at the bases all over the Middle East, we must hope that their presence will deter Hezbollah from making that fateful decision.